3. Drug Markets in Afghanistan

The presentation will first documents how drugs markets in Afghanistan have transformed in response to environmental and political shocks, as well as counternarcotics interventions, before offering insights into market reactions to the Taliban takeover in August 2021, and their subsequent efforts to prohibit drug production.

It builds on an established method that integrates in-depth fieldwork, high resolution satellite imagery and geospatial analysis, as well as long term experience amongst the policy and practitioner community in Afghanistan. 

Drug markets in Afghanistan have been subject to repeated and sometimes severe political and environmental shocks, as well as counternarcotics interventions. Some have led to dramatic reductions in supply across regions, others have had a more widespread national effect, most notably the Taliban prohibition of 2000/01. However, drugs markets in Afghanistan have shown great resilience. Cultivated and traded across diverse geographic terrain, with decentralised power dynamics and mobile populations, markets have adapted well, relocating production to other areas and adopting new techniques. The country’s interconnectivity with regional and global markets following the international community´s reconstruction efforts, have further enhanced market resilience. For example, access to cheap solar technology, generators, fertilisers and herbicides, has supported the widespread encroachment of former desert areas as farmers responded to the shock of both counternarcotics efforts and drought. While the rising cost of over-the-counter medicines and interdiction in Iran, the transfer of knowledge, and a ready supply of ephedra, led to the development of a burgeoning cottage industry in ephedrine production that led to Afghanistan becoming a major exporter of meth.

Stresses and shocks have often transformed drugs markets in Afghanistan, encouraging restructuring and innovation. These represent important factors when analysing the Taliban’s current efforts to prohibit drug production and the potential outcomes.