Applying foresight research for drug policy: Lessons from the DRUG-PREP project

Background
Foresight research is increasingly recognised as pivotal in navigating the rapidly evolving landscape of drug policy, but its application in drug research is limited. This innovative approach enables thinking, debating and shaping future trajectories. Foresight research can employ a variety of methodologies, combining evidence-based analysis with creative and interactive approaches. The methodological framework can be tailored to allow for factors such as domain scope, geographical scale, time horizon, and funding sources.
In the DRUG-PREP project, which aims to strengthen capacities of drug monitoring systems and policy responses to emerging drug trends, foresight research was conducted in six European countries.
Methods
A standardised research framework was developed with a three-step methodology:
1. Horizon Scanning: literature review to identify trends and megatrends that could impact the future of drugs in each country
2. Expert validation: workshops with national experts to validate the identified trends and consider potential impacts
3. Scenario building: describing different plausible futures and their implications
A broad perspective was taken, covering societal, technological, environmental, economic and political aspects (STEEP framework). Each partner performed the exercise in their country. Nevertheless, there were variations in methodological approaches. These included: differences in database selection and type of literature (e.g., scientific vs grey literature), focus on drug-specific or wider trends, different designs of expert panels (e.g., when/how to engage external experts), and execution of scenario building. Despite methodological differences, comparable outcomes across the countries were achieved.
Results
Each partner identified trends that could affect the future of drugs in their country, across societal, economic, environmental, technological and political spheres. Based on the experiences and variations in approaches, recommendations and best practices are being developed. For instance, it is valuable to involve a multi-disciplinary team (including non-drug experts) from the early stages of the process. Final recommendations and best practices for performing national foresight exercises in the drugs field will be presented.
Conclusion
The DRUG-PREP experience demonstrates the versatility of methods in foresight research to inform drug policy. The presentation will introduce the foresight approach in the context of drug research, underscoring its adaptability to different national and research settings. It will share insights, best practices, and recommendations. The aim is to demonstrate how foresight can effectively be applied to the drugs field, in view of the extent to which the drugs field is connected to and affected by external factors. Foresight can help to address developments in drug markets, prevalence of drug use, and evolving challenges in drug policy, contributing significantly to the field's advancement.