An exploration of drug market, gun violence and sociodemographic patterns in Stockholm Sweden and the prediction of gun violence

Sweden has over the last decades experienced an extreme development of gang criminality where drug crimes and lethal gun violence have had large impact on the local communities around Stockholm the capital of Sweden. In this presentation the overlap between drug markets and gun violence in Stockholm, Sweden is first described. The analysis is conducted using spatial data analysis techniques such as vector-grid analysis. The sociodemographic patterns of the Stockholm region are added and statistical methods such as regression analysis and index modelling are used in order to predict gun violence at micro places. The results points to reoccurring concentration of problems at socially vulnerable areas despite the affective behavior of young gun offenders and great possibilities of data driven forecasting.