Spatial analysis of drug seizure events in the Golden Triangle: Findings from UNODC’s Drug Monitoring Platform

Background: The Golden Triangle region in Southeast Asia has long been an important epicenter of drug production and trafficking. The continued expansion of methamphetamine production and trafficking has rapidly unfolded and is now suspected to involve an increasing level of sophistication and productivity. Methods: Using event-level data maintained by UNODC’s Drug Monitoring Platform, authors explore the spatio-temporal trends in seizure events (n=5,638) within the Golden Triangle region from January 2010 until November 2023, comparing heroin and methamphetamine seizures to describe variations between the two drugs and to model the relationship that distance in kilometers from the tri-border epicenter of the Golden Triangle has with the weight in kilograms of seizures. Findings: There are clear time trends in median seizure weights between drugs, with heroin weights remaining nearly unchanged over the time period. Median weights for methamphetamine increase substantially over time. Models estimate a significant and non-linear decline in seizure weights when traveling away from the Golden Triangle, with most of the decline occurring one standard deviation away. Conclusion: The rapid expansion and increase in production of methamphetamine indicates that traffickers can quickly scale up operations involving synthetic drugs. Methamphetamine seizure totals and incidents suggest that that drug now plays an increasingly important role in the region’s illegal drug economy. The decline of seizure weights relative to the distance from the Golden Triangle points to the nature of trafficking, with larger seizures occurring closer to areas of production.