Using scenario development for preparedness and futures literacy

Background

Foresight helps to develop the capacity to identify weak signals, consider how they may react within a specified environment and determine the level of attention they deserve.  The Irish National Focal Point to the EMCDDA has used a number of foresight exercises, including horizon scanning work as part of the EC-funded DRUG PREP project, to develop futures literacy among stakeholders and increase awareness of the value of foresight in strategy development and implementation. Introducing new methods like scenario building continues this work and helps to establish the value of foresight in increasing preparedness. Scenario planning identifies trends and key uncertainties which can then be combined to create a picture of the future. 

Methods

Ireland’s 2023 National Drugs Forum scenario planning workshop focussed on problem substance use among young people in Ireland in 2040, in order to identify potential future threats and to explore ideas and recommendations regarding response activities.   The workshop organisers used the Rip van Winkle technique, in which participants are asked to imagine awakening from a sleep of several years and ask a number of questions about the world they find themselves in. This part of the exercise was completed using an online survey of participants who had registered for the National Drugs Forum.

The survey identified a list of uncertainties, that was then arranged into in 14 topic clusters.  These defined the framework drivers of change for the workshop. Two extreme outcomes were assigned for each uncertainty cluster and the participants in the workshop were asked to select two uncertainties to construct the scenario matrix. 

Results

Nine separate groups participated in the workshop, and each of them created scenarios based on the two key uncertainties they selected.  A group of stakeholders, who are part of a foresight community of practice,  volunteered to facilitate the tables at the workshop. National Drug Forum participants willingly engaged in the work and there was lively and open discussion at each table. There was considerable variety in the key drivers chosen to develop the scenarios and the results provided a fascinating insight into how people imagined the uncertainties that our 2040 colleagues will face.

Conclusion

Researchers in strategic foresight often refer to the goal of ‘futures literacy’.  One step in developing futures literacy is to use imagination and discussion to make assumptions about the future explicit and enable people to use their anticipatory capacity to describe what this future might be.  A scenarios development workshop is a useful way of facilitating the generation of these ideas.  The workshop confirmed that there was real interest and enthusiasm among stakeholders in engaging in this work and agreement on the relevance of foresight concepts to prepare for uncertainty in a complex and challenging policy area.