What can Portugal do to prevent be caught off guard again in the drug domain?

Background

To the surprise of almost everyone, recently there has been an increase in the number of people who use drugs on the streets of the main Portuguese cities, and the social alarm surrounding drug addiction has resurfaced. Following the economic crisis of 2008, there have been growing signals from the field that something like that could happen. Such a case perfectly demonstrates the importance of foresight activities in policymaking and how monitoring systems can be utilized to increase preparedness by detecting early signals of change.

Method

Within the framework of the DRUG-PREP European project, since 2022 ICAD has been conducting efforts to show Portuguese policymakers how relevant foresight can be for the drug situation, as it allows to outline future scenarios and identify gaps and, thus, design and implement efficient policies to anticipate the problems and challenges that are expected in the coming years. First, a Horizon Scanning exercise was carried out, followed by a workshop organised with a group of experts. Finally, a workshop with key policymakers will take place in April, aiming to translate the main findings at the national level of the DRUG-PREP project and what can be learned from it. The latest developments in the drug field will be given as an empirical example of the importance of foresight studies in enhancing preparedness.

Results

By ignoring the signals coming from the field politicians did not anticipate the consequences of the pandemic and the economic crisis that followed, namely the resurgence of problematic drug use and the growing visibility of drug addiction in the streets, causing social alarm. The key idea resulting from this prospective exercise is that in the short and medium term, the future will bring demanding challenges that must be faced. Although some trends point out in a more positive direction, there are changes related to the climate, demography and worsening socio-economic conditions, which will have worrying consequences in the drug field. The major concern for the future is the impact of these trends on disadvantaged populations, particularly former drug users who may relapse into consumption, refugees and migrants of low socioeconomic status. Thus, it’s important to invest on social support, in training and in empowering populations in risk of social exclusion. On the other hand, it is urgent to expand monitoring networks, incorporating professionals from different areas, so to detect early and local signals of change and make them better prepared to anticipate problems and challenges in the short and medium term.

Conclusion

The results of the DRUG-PREP European project highlight how, based on the triangulation of signals and emerging developments, foresight studies can help to anticipate to future problems, allowing to set up proactive policies and allocating resources where they are most needed. A more prepared drug monitoring system will prevent Portugal from being caught off guard again.