Squandered sexenio: applying drug policy constellations to the failure of marijuana legalization in Mexico (2018-2024)

Background: In 2018, Mexico seemed on the verge of legalizing marijuana. Through reiterated decisions, the Supreme Court declared the absolute prohibition of cannabis unconstitutional. A new president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), was elected promising an alternative approach to drug policy. Oficialismo and opposition legislators alike presented cannabis reform initiatives. Almost six years later, with the AMLO presidency coming to a close, there has been no legal regulation of recreational cannabis in Mexico. What explains this failure of marijuana legalization in Mexico? 

Methods: To answer this question, the paper utilizes the “drug policy constellations” framework (Stevens & Zampini 2018; Los 2023; Stevens 2024), which identifies loosely-organized sets of actors that pursue the implementation and perpetuation of shared moral preferences and material interests as crucial for processes and outcomes of drug policy making. Based on interviews with policy makers, reform advocate and other stakeholders, documentary analysis and critical discourse analysis, the paper unearths the importance of certain constellations and specific actors within them, particularly president López Obrador. 

Results: Applying the “drug policy constellations” framework to the Mexican case, the paper shows that drug policy reform processes and outcomes have not resulted from purely rational or evidence-based deliberations, but normative preferences and structural positions of key actors. Given president López Obrador's moralistic rejection of both drug use and users, personalist governing style and ability to set the public and political agenda, reform-minded legislators and policymakers, from his own Morena party, were unable to advance cannabis reform during his government.

Conclusions: By focusing not only on power but also morality, the paper contributes to the understanding of the specific case of failed cannabis regulation in Mexico during AMLO’s sexenio (2018-2024), and, in general, the continuity of drug policies despite discontent with the status quo and demands for change. Furthermore, the paper highlights the usefulness of the “drug policy constellations” framework for furthering the understanding of drug policy making by applying it to a novel context.